Danger from expansionist China

        A controversy rocked  the Parliament on 8^th May, when two BJP MPs from the Arunachal Predesh, Sri Tapir Gao from Arunachal East and Sri Kiren  Rijiju from Arunachal West, alleged that, fresh Chinese intrusion has taken place in Arunachal Pradesh and the Chinese army has occupied a large tract of land in the Anjow district and the dibang Valley of the state. Sri Kiren Rijiju said that the Chinese troops has moved 20 km inside the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and has occupied large tracts of Indian territory in the Sumdorong Chu Valley and Aspalia and Lungar Car areas. He also alleged that the Chinese army has made a helipad in a belt of Tawang district. Both Sri Gao and Sri Rijiju reported that the Chinese army is continuously pursuing their process of incursion into Indian territory since 1962 and at present they have occupied nearly 2000 sq km area in the state. 

The Chief Minister Sri Dorjeeb Khandu, on the other hand, described all these statements of fresh intrusion entirely baseless and untrue. He admitted that the Chinese Government is claiming the entire Arunachal Predesh as a Chinese territory, but denied any fresh Chinese intrusion in the state. It may be recalled that the Chinese envoy Sri Sun Yuxi claimed the whole of the Arunachallast Pradesh as Chinese territory, last year, just before President Hu Jin-tao’s visit to India. But one MLA, Sri Lokam Tassar, of Khandu’s Government admitted recent Chinese intrusion of about 20 km inside LAC. Sri Tsering Gyurmey, the principal advisor of the Chief Minister Khandu, admitted, while talking to the reporters at the Guwahati airport on May 7, that the Chinese had crossed the LAC occupied the Sumdorong-Chu Valley and Aspalia and Lunger Car areas in Tawang district in as early as 1986. 

        The 10^th round of India-China border talks, that began on 21^st April at Coonoor, Tamil Nadu, came to an end on the next day with the promise of a rosy future of good friendship and healthy cooperation between two Asian giants. The Chinese delegation was led by its vice-foreign minister Shri Dai Bangguo, and Shri M K Narayanan, India’s national security advisor, led the Indian team. While speaking at the concluding session, Shri Dai said, “The entire world is watching India and China. Both nations should work for common development of people”. He also said that Beijing is keen for an early settlement of border row with India. He expressed his satisfaction over the recent developments to increase cooperation in education, trade and other sectors between the two nations. It may be mentioned here that 500 chinese students are receiving technological education in English in Tamil Nadu and the two nations have recently agreed to double their trade by 2010. However, Shri Dai, while opening his mind to the reporters, said, “Both countries being ancient civilizations, needed to be good neighbours and good partners”. But no Indian delegate asked the Chinese about the happenings in the Arunachal Pradesh or about Chinese claim of entire state as a Chinese territory. The Chinese army intruded about 20 km into Indian side of LAC, occupied 2000 sq. km of our land, but our delegates remained silent. So the question arises- Does our freedom and sovereignty secured under this UPA government ? 

Just a few days ago, on 10^th April India and USA sat together in New Delhi to discuss China’s massive programme for modernization of its 2.5 million strong People’s Liberation Army (PLA), developing Dong Feng-31 and Dong Feng-31A type missiles, road mobile ICBMs and SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles), and its rapidly spreading tentacles of influence in SE Asia and Africa. A delegation from India’s defense ministry met a visiting US delegation led by Sri Richard P Lawless, the deputy undersecretary of defense for Asia and Pacific Region. The visit of the US team  was also linked to the joint military exercise by India, Japan and USA, scheduled to begin on 17^th April in the Tokyo Bay and also to reinforce the newly formed “axis of democracy”, that includes India, USA, Japan and Australia. 

India is relentlessly trying to improve its bilateral relation with China and settle disputes regarding the border, stretching over 4,057 km long actual line of control. But its mighty neighbour still continues to show Arunachal Pradesh and some other parts of India as Chinese territories. The peaceful democratic people of India, Japan, USA and Australia are really worried about uncertainties of China’s long term ambition in one hand and its deep diplomatic relations with the rogue states like Pakistan, Iran, Myanmar and North Korea, in the other. Recently it has succeeded to display its power of influence by playing the key role to bring Kim Jong Il to the negotiating table. India is especially worried about growing naval expansion of China in the Indian Ocean and its rapidly increasing maritime and military links with Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar. 

As a matter of fact, China is increasing its global economic influence very fast and its leaders are turning this economic might into political and military muscle. Chinese companies are laying railway lines, building roads, setting up textile mills, digging oil-wells etc. in Luanda, Brazil, Thailand, south-east Asian countries and Australia. And, on the other hand, hordes of foreign investors, including some Indian capitalists, are pouring billions of dollars in China, and setting up factories. In 2006, the foreign direct investment (FDI) in China was nearly $82 billion, while it was only about $10 billion in India. And there is no doubt that this economic upsurge is inspiring its leaders to turn China into world’s next super power. These leaders believe that “21^st century is China’s century”. An opinion poll conducted by a Chicago firm in 2006 revealed that, 87% of Chinese respondents were convinced that China should gradually take a more and more interest in global affairs so that it could overtake USA within a decade. Its leaders are also trying hard to turn the dream into a reality. 

 President Hu Jin-tao spent 2 weeks in South America in 2004, promised billions of dollars in investment in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Cuba. In the same year, he traveled USA, Russia, South Africa, Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya. While the Premier Wen Jia-bao visited 15 countries in 2006. In 2006, President Hu also played host to 48 African leaders in Beijing and visited Vietnam, Laos and paid a 6 day visit to India and Pakistan. When the African leaders were visiting China, Hu promised them to double the aid to the continent by 2009, to train 15,000 African professionals in China and provide scholarship to 4,000 African students to receive higher education in Chinese Universities. China helped Angola with $2 billion in 2004 and sent weapons and cash to Robert Mugabe, the President of Zimbabwe. 

Till recent past, the golden rule of Chinese foreign policy was denouncing imperialism and the American imperialism in particular. “What was good for the US or the West was bad for China and vice versa”, says Sri Robert Zoellick, the US deputy secretary of state, to explain the mindset of China. In plain words- China decided to oppose whatever the West proposed and exercised its power as a permanent member of UN Security Council, in several occasions, to this end. By following this guideline, it opposed the effort to stop ethnic violence in Sudan, refused to play any role in developing democracy in the Middle East, helped military regimes in Myanmar, Pakistan and many other countries, most of whom were worst human rights violators. In this context one should also recall the incidents of serious human rights violation by China during Tiananmein Square massacre and the suppression of the Falung Gong followers. 

The other end game of china’s foreign policy was to keep flow of resources from foreign sources uninterrupted. Good relation was maintained with Brazil for beef, with Sudan, Iran and Burma for oil and gas and so on. In December last year China has signed a $16 billion deal with Iran for buying gas and developing its oil fields. It has undergone a similar deal last week with Myanmar for buying gas. With India, the Chinese policy was mixed – It has Fought a war with India in 1962 and though it is its principal rival in International as well as in Asian market, however, good relations should be maintained with India for her resources like iron ore. And perhaps more importantly for the fact that India, according to the speculations of the economic observers, may, not only catch up but, overtake China within a decade. 

Beside these rosy pictures of China’s economy like 10% annual growth continuing for a decade, experts consider China still to be a poor country. In 2005, its GDP per head was $1700, while it was $42,000 in USA. They also believe that, in reality, China’s military spending is also not as frightening as it appears to be. There is no doubt that during the past ten years, from 1995 to 2005, China’s military expenditure has increased by 300%, but in1995, it was 1.08 per cent of GDP, while in 2005, it was marginally increased to 1.55 per cent of GDP. But USA, whose GDP is 5 times as big as of China, spent 3.9 per cent of GDP in defense in 2005. In 2006, China has increased its military spending by 15 per cent over that of the previous year. 

The declared Chinese foreign policy is ‘non interference in others internal matters’. Chinese leaders believe that Tibet is a part of China and hence problem regarding Tibet is their internal matter and Dalai Lama is not a spiritual leader but a separatist whose aim is to split China. Similarly, Taiwan is also an integral part of China and there is ‘one China’ and hence they cannot allow any third party meddling in their own affairs. Many believe that by expressing these outlooks China tries to remind the US that its Iraq war is an intervention into others internal affairs. 

The other important aspect of China that makes others worried is its lack of democracy. “Would the present economic growth of an one party ruled state like China be peaceful and beneficial for the humanity?”, asks a British commentator and the answer is “may not”. Observers agree that China’s lack of democracy pose more threat. It is good news that China has already deviated far from Marxism turning itself into a unique state in the world where a capitalist economy is run by single party political dictatorship. Many believe that such mismatch cannot continue for a long time. So, most of the China-observers expect a collapse of the present one party dictatorship giving place to democratic political set up. “As China will get richer, its powerful capitalists and wealthy middle class will press for more freedom and that will pave the way for democracy”, says an American critic. It should be mentioned here that the Chinese Democratic Party, which is at present working secretly, is eagerly waiting for that opportune moment when the said political transition will occur without blood-shed. The world is eagerly waiting to see the emergence of a Chinese Gorbachev, who will do the job. 

        However in today’s world, it is necessary for both India and China, the two rising powers in Asia, to understand that they should avoid conflict and settle their differences amicably on the negotiating table. It is a good gesture that both the countries have decided to double their trade by 2010, and agreed to bid jointly for global projects. The leaders of China should comprehend that a united India and China will rule the world, whereas a confrontation between them will bring doom for both.