DANGEROUS PROLIFERATION
North Korea Only The Most Cynical Player
On 15 – 16 July this year, the US defense department successfully shot down a mock enemy missile with a test defense missile over the Pacific Ocean. The mock wanted called Minuteman-II was lifted into space from the Vanienberg air force base in California at 10.40 pm and the interceptor missile was launched 21 minutes and 34 seconds later from the Kwajelein atoll in the Marshall island, nearly 7,25 km away. As expected the intercepting missile knocked down the said mock warhead about 225 km above the central Pacific, well above the earth’s atmosphere, while the combined speed of the two reached nearly 25,750 km per hour and the impact was so powerful that the target vehicle was vaporized after collision.
The taste was a part of the highly controversial National Missile Defence
programme recently launched by the Bush Administration and Ronald Kadish, the
head of the Pentagone’s Ballistic Missile Defence Organization, expressed his
satisfactions over the out cone of the taste and said that it was a positive
state forward towards building a multilayered anti missile defence shield over
the US. “Two out of the three previous such $100 million tests have failed.
Most recently, such a test was undertaken nearly a year ago, on 8 July 2000, and
the next one is the scheduled for October this year”, he added.
MISSILE
DEFENCE
But according to the sceptics the tests was merely a baby test because
the target missile did not incorporate the kinds of sophisticated decoys that a
real enemy missile would use to confuse any possible anti missile defence
system.
It may be recalled here that, during the cold war era, President Ronald
Reagan, in his attempt to protect the American Man land from possible Russian
missile attacks, initiated the Star Wars projects to cover it with an anti
missile shield using satellite based laser interceptors. But after the
disintegration of the former Soviet Union in 1991 and the subsequent end of the
cold war era, the project lost its momentum and was completely abandoned when
the Democrat President Bill Clinton assumed office. It may be mentioned here
that the Democrats were hostile to the very idea of the protection shield and
argue that such a protection system can never be made absolutely full proof and
hence, it could only provide a false sense of security in return for colossal
spending. “You cannot stop a bullet with another bullet” said a Democrat
Senator.
But in the middle of 1999 the question of reviving the same arose again
as an intensely contentious issue and in the last week of June President Chaton,
yeildiong to Congress --------- pressure signed a ------ that called for
building and anti missile shield over American as soon as it was
technologically-----------. He however nearly slashed nearly $ 20 billion from
Reggan’s original budget and sanctioned merely $ 6.6 billion for the project.
Political observers at the time said that he did it keeping the Presidential
election in 2000 in view.
In fact, American leaders are now concerned more about Chinese and North
Korean threats rather than Russian ones. In August 1999, Pyongyang under secret
the danger when it fired its Taepo Dong – I missile that fell into the Pacific
after flying over Japan. According to experts, the missile could heat Alaska
with a heavy payload and with a lighter pay load it could reach even California.
The threat was so gave that William Cohen, the then secretary of defence, became
nervous and express his desire in favor of immediate revival of the anti missile
defence programme.
Hardly a year later China later on 21 December 2000 successfully tested
its Dong Feng-31 missile capable of delivering a 3.5 Megaton thermonuclear
device at a distance of 5,000 mile, bringing the entire American mainland under
its footprint. More frighteningly, the Chinese are now busy with the task of
Developing Dong Feng – 41-type missile capable of hitting a target 8,000 miles
away and it is expected that it will be able to taste same within 2002.
IRRESPONSIBLE
Keeping all this new threat in view the Pentagon immediately suggested
building seven separate systems, each of which is design to counter a slightly
different threat, as a short term measure. Finally President George W Bush, just
after assuming office, announce that his government would put emphasis on
building an anti-missile protection umbrella and reviving the abandoned Star
Wars programme. As a follow up of the said announcement the pentagon is going to
re-launch research on the famous “Brilliant Pebbles” programme a key element
of the said Star War Project. According to a recent pres statement by Rob
Snyder, the executive director of the BMDO, it arms to put as many as 4,000
laser satellite into space and the first batch of this laser
to defence expert the programmes, which was abandoned in 1993 after
spending $ 4.8 billion, would militant space with its 4,000 laser satellite and
hence provokes worldwide presents.
It is really a matter of serious concern that some of the most
irresponsible status in the world, including Pakistan have acquired missile
capability and two of them namely North Korea and Iran, are preparing to prove
their ability to carry out deadly missile strikes not just on immediate
neighbours but on distant targets as well. Today nearly 40 odd countries have
ballistic missile capability but the matter of containments is that, most of
them are unable to equip them with non-conventional warheads like nuclear
chemical or biological once.
North Korea is probably the world’s most cynical proliferate of deadly
missile today and is selling secrete and components to any one who can pay. But
Pakistan’s Ghazis missile are more designed to deliver a nuclear warhead and
Iran’s Shahab-3 missile, tested last year, are nothing but carbon copies of
the North Korea prototype. In fact North Korea is the most ambitious missile and
missile technology exporters of today and Pakistan and Iran are two of the most
enthusiastic buyers. They are also relentlessly shopping for missile technology
and spares in Russia and China. An American intelligence report says that
broadly pro-American countries, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, have
developed and excessive craze for long range missiles and are acquiring them
from China through clandestine assories.
THE
THREAT
In 1994, North Korea promised to stop trying to make nuclear weapons, but
there are strong reasons to believe that weapons of Kiloton capacity are in its
possession. So, it become evident that among the most irresponsible states.
North Korea and Pakistan have acquired the capability of striking a distant
target with a nuclear device and experts believe that in the near future it is
the North Korea or Pakistani nuclear arsenal, which would trigger global cists.
Iran is now preparing to test its Multi-stage missile Shahab-4, which
could reach most of Europe including a part of Britain and claims that, it has
deployed a considerable number of Shahab-3 missiles, which could heat Israeli
and a part of Turkey. According to missile experts, Iran’s new missile
Shahab-4 will have a range of nearly of 2000 km and according to Kenneth
Timmerman, a Middle East analyst; Iran is working hard to develop a missile of
4,000 km range.
It is extremely disturbing news for India since a would bring the entire
northern and western India, including Delta and Mumbai, under its footprint. In
addition thanks to the Russian assistance for setting up nuclear reactors in
Iran. Israeli military experts apprehend that within a couple of years Iran will
acquire the capability to equip this missile with nuclear or chemical warheads.
Prospects
Of Anti-missile Defence
DURING the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq freely used Soviet make Scud missiles. Though after imposition of UN sanctions Iraq is supposed to have destroyed its entire lot of Scud missiles, many believe that at least a few dozens of the said Scud missiles are till in its possession. It is also believed that Irak can make long-range missiles if sanctions are lifted. Further more, the UN weapon inspectors say that they have found positive indications that, Saddam Hussain has equipped his missile force with deadly VX gas.
The Missile Technology Control Regime accord forbids a member country
from exporting long-range missiles and related technology. But the accord seems
to have failed miserably to keep pace with the ever growing appetite of the
small countries for acquiring medium and long range missiles and, in fact, the
pared of missile and missile technology have reached a no-return point. Today,
the ballistic missile menace threaten American heart land and medium range
rockets of many rogue countries are pausing threats to many American allies in
the Middle East, Asia and else where.
SHIELD
For
example, North Korea is lobbing missile for Japan for intimidation, Taiwan is
facing constant threat from Mainland China and South Korea and Israel are afraid
of North Korean and Iranian missiles.
Though
some top difficult of Pentagon are of the opinion that the said trouble maker
status will not dare attack USA directly or any other state which USA is obliged
to defend, as much an act could be an invitation for their own description, the
fear of all unscrupulous attack evenly remains. In such a situation, a
retaliatory attack by the US could spark of an even bigger crisis engulfing the
entire globe since most of these rocket-wielding countries are friendly with two
of the major missile exporting countries, Russian and China.
Keeping
al these consequences in view the scientist of USA, Israel and Japan had started
working together to built effective anti-missile shields from need 1999,
utilizing improved technology for stopping missiles at their mid-flight. The
scientists of USA and Japan are trying to construct anti-missile shield using
improved radar systems, while those USA and Israel are working to create an
anti-missile umbrella popularly known as the “arrow” system. So an
international network do anti-missile protection system is gradually emerging to
country the threat of terrible of international missile networks.
But
the possible creation of such defence systems has already prompted loud protest
from Russia and China. They are now being brisk business in the missile sector
and apprehend that the emergence of a fool proof protection system will
considerable dampen the missile market -
then people, instead of running after missile, will start spending money
in buying such protection umbrella. Moreover, China is afraid that in such a
situation Taiwan will be able to protect itself with the help of American
protection shield and go out of its control forever.
From
the technological point of view the anti missile defence system may be
classified into two extreme categories. Firstly there is the highly localist
“point defence” system that rotates specific places like an air or a naval
based or simply or isolated battle ship in the mid sea by knocking down the
incoming missile in the mid air American PAC – 3 system falls under this
category. In fact, it is an improved version of the original patriot system
tested during the Gulf war. The other extreme category lies in developing a
shield over the entire area of a country the Star Wars project is a protection
system belonging to this second extreme category and was launched to create an
impermeable umbrella join the 50 status of USA.
COUNTER-MOVE
Somewhere between these two extreme lie to Pentagon efforts, namely the
“Theatre” defence and the “Navy Theatre Wide” defence. The former is an
extremely sophisticated version of PAC-3 and is designed to protect an overseas
garrison. The Theatre High Altitude Area Defence system is another version of
PAC-3 and is designed to intercept a medium range ballistic missile. The NTW
system is, on the other hand, designed to protect a naval base or a battle ship
in the mid-sea.
In June 1998, when a THAAD system was being tested, it could score only
one successful interception after six embarrassing failures. This made the
official of Pentagon sceptics about the efficiency of the system. It should be
pointed out here that the speed of a missile increases with a range and hence it
is easier to intercept a short-range missile than a long of a medium – range.
The Israeli aircraft Industry with American financial assistance has
meanwhile developed the Arrow Weapon System and could prove it to be a better
defence then THAAD by intercepting five out of six test missiles. The mechanism
of destroying and incoming missile with AWS is also quite different from that
with THAAD. THAAD is designed to vaporize the incoming missile with a head on
collision, while the AWS is designed to explode a detonator somewhere in the
vicinity of the incoming enemy missile. The military top brass of Israel are
more or less happy with their attainment and hope that with AWS they will be
able to counter all the threats Iran is likely to unleash against them.
The most interesting part of the episode is that, while America is trying
her best to develop absolutely full proof protection shields to combat missile
attack, missile maker, on the other hand, are trying hard to develop
technologies so that their missile may pass through such protection systems
undetected. For examples, Russia has already declared that its latest model of
long-range missile, Topol-M, can slip through any anti-missile network that
America might design.
FOOT-PRINTS
So, many believe that, instead of missile defence system, it would be
better to rely on older techniques of diplomacy and deterrence to combat the
present missile menace. As far as Indian security needs are concerned, it should
be pointed out that Delhi and Mumbai have come under the foot-prints of the
Ghauri missiles of Pakistan along with this city, Kolkata will come under to
foot-print of Shahab– 4 missile of Iran. The most fearful aspect of these
developments is that Pakistan has already earned the capability of equipping its
missile with nuclear warheads and Iran is going to achieve this capability is
near future. More frightening aspect of the episode is that, probably the
Islamic fanatic Osama-bin-Laden procured bombs by some clandestine manner and
many believe that he has four to six nuclear bombs in his possession. In
addition to that, their remain the original Chinese threat.
So it is high time India should plants its own defence strategy adopting at least low cost “point defence” systems using elaborate radar networks, is not more efficient as well as costly system to counter nuclear attacks from this to fanatic Islamic states. It should go for erecting defence networks in big cities, big industrial and defence establishments, air and naval bases, bridges, dams and all other targets of strategic importance, even by practicing austerity. At the same time, India should start making long-range ballistic missiles as a deterrent.
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