CLIMATE CHANGE
Could be far more catastrophic than ever predicted
Today, the greenhouse effect and the consequent global warming is a reality, and experts agree that after the beginning of the industrial revolution in middle of 18th century, the level of carbon dioxide has increased by 30 per cent, nitrous oxide by 15 per cent and methane by 100 per cent in the atmosphere and in the past 100 years the average global temperature has gone up by 0.6 degree Celsius. The government of UK, last year, held a conference on “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” in the meteorological centre at Exeter, so that the scientists could estimate a clear threshold of accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which must not be surpassed if the average rise in global temperature to be arrested below 2o Celsius. The scientists estimated that the said concentration, in terms of carbon dioxide (i.e. by transforming the contribution of other gases like methane, nitrous oxide etc. into equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide) should not exceed 400 ppm (parts per million). The experts who assembled in Exeter were more or less convinced that the said threshold had already been crossed. However, asked Prof. Keith Shine, the head of the department of meteorology, University of Reading, to calculate the same precisely.
Recently, Professor Keith has submitted his calculations in the 2nd week of February and it shows that the said equivalent carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has gone up to 425 ppm. The break up that Prof. Keith has presented is- carbon dioxide 379 ppm, and contributions of methane and nitrous oxide are equivalent to 40 ppm and 6 ppm of carbon dioxide respectively. The above finding has scared the experts around the world, who apprehend that crossing of the threshold has made dangerous climate changes inevitable. Many believe that some of global warming’s worst predicted effects from destruction of the ecosystem to increased hunger and fresh water shortage affecting billions of people, have now become unstoppable. “What this tells is that we have already reached the point where our children can no longer count on safe climate”, says Prof. Tom Burke of the Imperial College, London. “Climate change has now past the point of no return”, says the meteorologist James Lovelock.
According to the scientists, the global warming generates two types of feedback, the positive and the negative. Positive feedback enhances global warming, while the negative feedback does the opposite. For example, global warming increases moisture content in the atmosphere which give rise to more snow in winter as well as more clouds in the sky. Ice, snow and clouds reflect sun rays and thus prevent global warming. These and other similar effects are called negative feedback. While an increase in ocean and atmospheric temperature enhance global warming and are called positive feedback. These positive feedbacks might have cumulative effects and lead ultimately to devastations. One may recall that a warmer Gulf of Mexico, in November last year, triggered devastating hurricanes Katrina and Rita that lashed America’s coastal region causing serious damage to human life and property. To express the danger of positive feedbacks scientists use a term “Butterfly Effect”, that means a flap of the wings of a butterfly in Brazil may give rise to a category 5 hurricane in Texas, or a similar flap in the Sahara desert might trigger devastating cyclones in the Caribbean.
Most of the predictions regarding global warming, scientists make, are
based on computer models. But actual climate system is much more complicated
than those simulated by computers. Or in other words, effects of global warming
may be far more devastating than what the computer models suggest. For example,
according to a study by the UN, using computer models, the sea level is expected
to rise by half a metre at the end of this century. But in reality, studies on
glaciers of Greenland suggest that the outcome would be far more catastrophic. A
study carried out by a group of scientists led by Dr. Eric Rignot of the Jet
Propulsion Laboratory, NASA, and published in the third week February, this
year, in the journal Science, the sea
level may rise by as much as 6 metres or 20 feet within next 10 to 20 years.
In
fact, Greenland is an enormous frozen island and the glaciers that flow towards
the ocean in the southern part of the island are now among the world’s fastest
moving glaciers and account for one sixth of the annual rise in sea level.
The study revealed that for past 5 years the speed of the massive
glaciers that are moving towards the ocean has been doubled to nearly 13 km per
year and thus pouring twice as much more water in the sea. “In 1996, Greenland
was losing about 100 cubic km of ice per year and this year it will lose more
than twice as much”, says Dr. Rignot. To give a comparative account he says,
“In 1996, Greenland poured 90 times as much water into the sea as Los Angeles
consumed, last year it went up to 225 times and in the next 10 years it would be
nearly doubled to as much as 450 times”, says Dr. Rignot.
Greenland’s ice cap covers more than 1.68 million sq km and in places it is more than 3 km thick. “If it all melted or otherwise slid into the ocean, sea level would rise by 20 feet [6 metres] or so” says Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences at the Princeton University. A 1 ft vertical rise in sea level generally draws the shore line nearer by 100-ft, and hence “in low-lying countries like Bangladesh, the resulting flooding could dwarf the 2004 tsunami”, Dr. Oppenheimer adds.
The outcome of a similar study made on Antarctica is far more fearsome. In fact, the Antarctic ice sheet holds nearly 70 per cent of world’s fresh water and the frozen continent is shedding about 152 cubic km of ice every year – which the city of Los Angeles needs in 36 years. The results of the study called the “Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment” (Grace), launched in 2002, with two satellites, have recently been published in the 4th March edition of the journal Science. The study (Grace) has revealed that the West Antarctic ice sheet, where the bulk of the melting is taking place, can alone raise the sea level by more than 6 metres. The East Antarctic sheet, which is 8 times larger, appears to be more stable. These ice sheets are, on the average, 2 km thick and their complete melting could liberate enough water to raise the sea level by as much as 45 metres and the present rate of melting is raising it by 0.4 mm per year
It may be recalled that on December 1, 1997, nearly 1500 delegates from 159 nations along with 3,500 representatives from various non-governmental organizations assembled in the Japanese city of Kyoto for a ten day-long negotiations to rein in the emissions of greenhouse gases by the 34 industrialized nations and after contentious bargaining and brinkmanship, USA and other industrialized nations could reach an agreement. It called for USA to cut its carbon emissions by 7 per cent below 1990 level. While the European countries and Japan agreed to cut their emissions by 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. It was also decided that the above targets must have to be reached within the 2008 to 2012 time frame. At that time most of the environmentalists were convinced that the said reductions could easily be achieved by developing less polluting and high energy efficient technologies. Though the 159 participating nations had approved the said Kyoto protocol, most of the governments could make little progress towards implementing the same. For example, the US Senate has not even cared to ratify it. “It is a shame for the Japanese city of Kyoto that its name should forever be associated with failure. … The global agreement on cutting carbon emission that was agreed upon in the city in 1997, not implemented”, says a British commentator.
But the International Energy Authority (IEA) is to some extent optimistic and expects that the industrialized signatories could cut their emissions at least by 5 per cent below their 1990 level by 2012. At the same time, it apprehends that the holes in the treaty are so huge that one may deny its responsibility on hundred and one pretexts. And in such a situation, if the emission of carbon dioxide continue at the present rate, apprehends IEA, its accumulation in the atmosphere might increase by 50 per cent of the present level by 2030. It should also be mentioned here that the meeting of global environment ministers at Montreal, Canada, in the 2nd week of December, 2005, to take a stock of the situation and discuss better ways of implementing the Kyoto protocol, remained rather a cheerless affair. For two weeks, negotiators from nearly every country converged to discuss the future of the Kyoto protocol, but no real substance came out of it. It seems really ridiculous when an observer remarks, “The Montreal summit deserves credit for bringing America back into the UN’s climate negotiations”. The news from the scientists, who are supposed to invent more efficient technologies, that would utilize less fossil fuel, is not also very encouraging. In Montreal, thrust was given to develop new technologies for using vast natural reserves of coal without contributing to global warming.
Business was once solidly against any curb on carbon dioxide emission, but at present its views are divided. It is really encouraging that business’s interest in green technology is steadily rising and many believe that this is due to shrinking of cost between re-usable, mainly solar and wind power, technology and the conventional technology of generating power. “Not only smaller firms, run by environment-conscious entrepreneurs, but big multinationals, like General Electric (GE), are betting for eco-friendly technologies”, says an observer. In fact, GE, the largest energy equipments manufacturer and supplier in the world, is convinced that there is money to be made from green technologies as well. If more and more multinationals begin to follow GE and invest in green technology, the greater is the chance that their customers would buy the stuff and thus cut their emissions. At present, high oil prices are, no doubt, doing their bit of reducing carbon emissions. But experts believe it to be a mere transient phenomenon. They are convinced that today’s high oil prices are mainly due to increased demand, especially from China and an increase in supply, as a result of new investments or new finds, may pull the price down again. It should also be mentioned here that due to rapid industrialization, China has emerged as the second largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world and India is following it closely. And hence demand is being raised in international fora that India, along with USA and China, is to be asked to cut its emissions. There has been another fascinating development. Politicians have started to project themselves as greenies since the voters are becoming more and more conscious about global warming and climate change. An opinion poll, just after the devastations of Katrina and Rita, has revealed that more than half of Americans consider climate change to be a real problem and over a third believe that it was a major factor that triggered the deadly hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Even in China, it seems that the government as well as common people are getting concerned with green house effect and climate change. The government has just legislated tougher fuel economy laws, even tougher than that of USA. Its current Five-Year Plan calls for more investments in fuel economy and it is planning to set up 30 nuclear-power plants over the next 20 years, as a part of its programme to cut carbon emissions. China has also shown interest to participate in post Kyoto programmes of cutting emissions. But world’s biggest polluters seem to have adopted a go-slow policy. “How to motivate them?”, asks a commentator. “It appears that they are unwilling to bear the short term costs in return for uncertain long term benefits. Furthermore, these long term benefits greatly depend on the steps other big polluters take to fulfill their promise” he adds.
As it has been pointed out earlier, phenomenon of global warming and climate change is a serious matter for India. Scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, as a part of their effort to predict how global warming might affect the Indian subcontinent, have critically studied all possible effects of a future climate change. Computer simulations have predicted rising of both minimum and maximum temperatures across the country, more cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and higher frequency of extreme rainfall events. The results of their studies have recently been published in the February 10, edition of the journal Current Science. “The simulation shows global warming will lead to more frequent changes in the atmospheric system that produce extreme temperature and extreme rainfall events”, says Dr. K. Rupa Kumar, head of the department of climatology at IITM. “Frequency of extreme rainfall events would dramatically rise over a large part of area, particularly along the west coast and the west-central India and increase in the minimum temperature would be more pronounced than that of the maximum. Already there are evidences from the past few decades that the minimum temperatures are rising more rapidly than the maximum”, Dr. Kumar adds. He has also pointed out that, if the levels of carbon dioxide continue to rise at the present rate, the Bay of Bengal will experience more as well as stronger cyclones during the post monsoon months of October and November. It should also be mentioned here that, according to the report of a research team of IITM, the tide gauge observations along the eastern and the western coasts have revealed that the sea levels at Mumbai, Visakhapatnam and Kochi are rising at a rate of slightly less than 1 mm per year. The climate modeling system developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction in the UK, when applied to India, forecasts an overall warming from 2.5oC to 5oC within 2070, and the northern India would experience the highest increase.
According to a recent press report [Statesman-6.2.06], Robert Zeigler, the director general of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) at Lagun, Philippines, has expressed his apprehension that global warming could affect rice cultivation in India. While our President APJ Abdul Kalam was visiting IRRI on February 5, Mr. Zeigler said, “Climate change due to green house effect could hit rice production in India”. He also apprised the President that, as a defense, the scientists are trying to develop hybrid varieties of rice capable of withstanding the adverse climatic conditions. “One of our future plans is collaboration with India in view of the problem of climate change resulting from green house gas effect. We will monitor it and its impact on rice output”, said Mr. Zeigler. Most of the scientists apprehend that Indian agriculture would face three main challenges in near future- (1) shrinking of land under cultivation of rice and wheat from 170 million hectares to 100 million hectares by 2020; (2) shortage of irrigation water and (3) decline in number of people in farming. To counter these challenges, it is necessary to develop high yielding varieties of rice and wheat that would need less water. It should be mentioned here that IRRI was set up in 1960 and the renowned scientist Dr. MS Swaminathan had served IRRI as its director general for 6 years from 1982 to 1988. At present, India contributes $150,000 per year and it has so far spent $1.5 million on IRRI.
The good news is that, common people around the world are becoming more and more conscious about Green House Effect and global warming. Nearly two dozens of American states, including New York and California, have started imposing some forms of curb on green house gas emissions. And, as mentioned above, several dozens of leading US firms, including GE, have started to take voluntary steps to cut emissions. In this context, Mr. Billy Graham, a leader of Evangelical Christians, says, “God has given man stewardship of the Earth, and thus it is man’s responsibility to act on climate change”. But in fact, the God of Bible, as portrayed in the book, not seems to be concerned, to slightest extent, about the importance of protection and preservation of nature and, in fact, today’s eco-destructive concept of industrial civilization in the West has derived its inspiration partly from the Bible.
The above notion gains ground when God commands Adam and says,” Be fruitful and increase in number, fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish in the sea and birds of the air and every living creature that moves on the ground. …I give you every seed-bearing plant on the face of the whole earth and every tree that has fruit with seed in it. They will be yours for food ….I give (you) every green plant for food” (Genesis: I, 28-30). Then after the Deluge, God gave Noah His consent for indiscriminate killing of every living being and said, ”Fear and dread of you will fall upon all the beasts of the earth and all the birds of the air, upon every creature that moves along the ground and upon all the fish of the sea, they are given unto your hand. … Just as I gave you green plants, now I give you everything” (ibid: IX, 2-3).
But the great seers of this ancient nation could foresee that man, by plundering nature, would invite his own doom if he is slightly indulged in to let loose his infinite appetite for consumption and lust for material pleasure. They, therefore, advised people to preserve nature in one hand and prescribed abstinence and self restraint for them, in the other. They preached, “Nature is everyone’s mother and hence nobody should hurt or injure her to the slightest extent. For his survival, man should milk mother-nature and never plunder her. He should collect his subsistence from mother-nature as a bee collects honey from a flower, without causing slightest injury to the flower. It is she, the mother-earth, whom the gods, sleepless, protect all the time. … Let her yield honey for us. Let the earth be to us, a mother to a son, ….The earth is the mother and I am her son. … What of thee, O earth, I dig out, let that quickly grow over; let me not hit thy vitals, O cleansing one”, says Atharva Veda (Chapter-XII).
It is really encouraging that the Western thinkers also have started to understand the importance of preserving nature and abstinence in man. “A new paradigm will emerge incorporating the recognition that humanity depends on nature and not vice versa. … The change must occur because every year distress signals from the bio-sphere become more and more pointed. …The new paradigm will come when more and more people will be forced to understand how environmental degradation mortgages their future and the future of their descendants”, says Dr. Peter Vitousek, a biologist at the Stanford University. “Our challenge is to find new ways to address those problems by reaching back to our oldest values of community and responsibility by inspiring a greater respect for the land and other resources (of nature) we share”, says Mr. Al Gore, the former US Vice President.
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